• John Lilly on Evidence and Start-up Companies

    Mozzilla COO John Lilly wrote a comment in response to my post on "evidence-based everything," which is quite insightful as he points out the "instrumentation" and responding to the numbers has become a core part of running an Internet business. He mentions YouTube and Google as examples, and I know that gathering and responding to hard evidence — and doing it as a way of life — also happens at eBay and Yahoo! In addition, I was at a Stanford d.school gathering last year where John argued that, because evidence about customer behavior is so easy to gather on the web, the way that an Internet start-up is pitched to venture capitalists has changed dramatically since boom in the late 1990’s.  Check out this attached article that Pfeffer and I wrote called Why Managing By Facts Works. It starts out with a great example from John about why having just a great PowerPoint based talk isn’t enough these days — you have to show that people actually want what you’ve got.

  • Evidence-Based Everything

    I announced a few weeks in a post that, with some great help from Daphne Chang and Paul Reist at the Stanford Business School Library, and from Management Science & Engineering PhD student Ralph Maurer, Jeff Pfeffer and I had launched www.evidence-basedmanagement.com. We have continued to work on the site, and the greatest improvement has been the work that Daphne and Paul have done in identifying an astounding range of evidence-based movements, and providing links to key information. Check out their list of other evidence-based movements, which include evidence-based conservation, evidence-based crime prevention, evidence-based government (imagine that!), evidence-based medicine (the most completely developed), evidence-based social work, and evidence-based software engineering.

    Certainly, the meaning of an evidence-based approach means different things in different places. But the common theme I see across all these movements — and why the term evidence-based is so value and is spreading — is that people across all these areas want the best decisions made and implemented because money and lives are at stake, and rather than taking steps that are based on what has always been done, what sustains the power structure, or provides the largest financial payoff to the most persuasive salespeople, I believe these movements represent a desire and commitment to do the right thing.  Sure, ideology and greed will always bias the decisions that people make and implement, but pressing people to face and follow the best facts is a new, noble, and sometimes effective hurdle.  Indeed, there are signs people with best evidence do and can win — and to see how it is done, if you haven’t already, check out Al Gore’s brilliant and simple arguments about global warming in An Inconvenient Truth.

  • Simplicity at Metacool

    Diego over at Metacool has been writing some wonderful stuff on simplicity. Check out the comparison between the two different drive-through signs. Diego’s analysis of why the In-N-Out Burger sign is so effective is just lovely — and the picture of the other sign is hysterical.

  • Hand Washing and Evidence-based Management

    I’ve written before about how handwashing by medical care workers is one of the most well-documented preventable causes of death and disease in health care settings. One hospital CEO, for example, told me that he wore a button that said "It is OK to Ask," to encourage patients to ask doctors if they had washed their hands — a practice the doctors didn’t like, but that did have positive effects.  Last Sunday’s New York Time Magazine had a splendid article by Dubner and Levitt called "Selling Soap."    The story contains many lessons that go far beyond hand-washing and have implications for evidence-based management on many other things. Consider four:

    1. Self-report data can be worse than useless. They describe an Australian study where 73% of doctors reported washing their hands, but when the docs were observed by a researcher only 9% were seen washing their hands. The lesson is that you need to check out what people say, interviewing the people you are trying to help and change produces very suspect data.

    2. The story focuses on Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and efforts to get physicians to wash their hands. Nagging doctors with emails and posters didn’t work. But the Hand Hygiene Safety Posse did — they roamed the halls and when they saw a doctor washing his or her hands, they handed out a small reward on the spot, a $10 Starbucks gift certificate. This had substantial effects, getting compliance up to 80% from 65% — but they were aiming to hit 90% for a pending inspection.

    3. The way they finally got compliance up to nearly 100% was to have a group of the hospitals more influential  doctors each press their palms on plates that were cultured and photographed, which resulted in images that "were disgusting and and striking, with gobs of colonies of bacteria." One of these was used as a screen saver that was placed on every computer in the hospital. The power of this last intervention not only provides lessons about hospitals, it is a lesson about how to implement any other change that people "know" is good, but aren’t doing:

    A. They started by changing some of the most powerful and persuasive people in the system — opinion leaders and people with high status are important for sparking change.

    B. They spread the information to everyone in the system, so they could all keep an eye on each other.  This made the norm open and easy to monitor — and vivid.

    C. They made the dry statistical information very vivid. The disgusting picture is the perfect kind of image that sticks in people’s minds — check out Heath and Heath’s Made to Stick. This is one of their kep principles.

    D. Finally, they created the kind of social pressure where if people did not follow the norm, it would lead to loss of face. Economists and psychologists like financial rewards, and as this tale shows, incentives are effective to a point. But if you can find ways that people feel compelled to follow the evidence, or they will suffer humilation in the eyes of the people around them, that is even more effective. It is a lot easier to measure and dispense financial rewards, but if you want to change human behavior, it is hard to beat pride and shame — as sociologists including Erving Goffman   have demonstrated.

    Finally, this story, to me, is another sign that focusing on managing the system is more important than devoting excessive energy to bringing in star talent — that the law of crappy systems trumps the law of crappy people.  This hospital clearly has many smart and well-meaning people. But the compliance rate was only about 65% until management started changing the system, first through rewards (which got them up to 80%), and then through those disgusting pictures (which pushed them to close to %100). These are all the same people, they were just managed differently.

  • Speech in Dubai on Teaching People to Innovate


    I
    have not been posting much lately because I went on a trip to Dubai last week
    and a group of us at the d.school are working like crazy on our new class “Clicks-n-bricks:
    Creating Mass Market Experiences,” which starts Thursday afternoon.  I had a fantastic trip to  Dubai, where I spoke at a conference that was
    organized by the Emirates Higher Colleges of Technology and the  MIT
    Entrepreneurship Center.

      The
    organizers were very excited because Excellency Sheikh Nahayan Mabarak Al Nahayan was going to attend the conference and giving the opening speech.  The event started over an hour late we – an audience
    of perhaps 1000 people –waited for his Excellency to arrive, and when he
    did arrive, there was all sorts of wonderful ceremony, an entourage of perhaps
    50 people, 20 or so members of the media, and fantastic music (an IBM executive
    told me that they had hoped to have indoor fireworks, but the ceiling was too
    low).  After his Excellency’s speech,
    there were some lovely dancers, and then Azim Hashim Premji
    Chairman and founder of Wipro, plus the wealthiest person  in India,
    – then spoke for
    about 15 minutes.

    I was next, and as I was walking up to speak, one of my hosts ran up
    to me and whispered “you have to make it fast, his Excellency has to leave!”  Also, before the speech Pat Toole from
    IBM whispered to me that I should start the speech by saying “Your Highness,
    Your Excellencies, and ladies and gentleman.”  That was different and it was fun.

    So I hit a
    small number of points and hit them quickly.  Being a professor, I can talk on and on, but
    one of the lessons I learned on the trip is that a good 8 minute talk is a lot
    better than a bad 30 or 60 minute talk.  As they say in show business, it is
    always better to leave the audience wanting more than wanting less.

    I
    talked about what I’ve learned about teaching people to innovate from academic research,
    teaching classes in the d.school
    and Stanford Technology Ventures
    Program,
    and from working with companies like IDEO, HP, and SAP. I
    emphasized five points and their implications for policy. I doubt that many of you will be surprised by
    any of these ideas, but knowing is not the same is doing.  Few of these practices are used at the
    university level – not just in the AER, throughout the world.  Here are the five points: 

    1 Producing smart individuals is the first step;
    teaching them to collaborate is the second step.

    2 Teach people how to fight as if they are right and
    listen as if they are wrong.

    3. Teach experts to seek out novices, and novices to
    seek out experts.

    4. Teach people to treat innovation as an
    import-export business.

    5. Teaching people how to succeed isn’t enough;
    teach them how to fail too.

    I also added that renowned innovators – from Charles
    Darwin to Steve Jobs – not only have good ideas, they also always seem to be
    able to sell their ideas or to hook-up with people who can do it for them.

    We had some other crazy adventures later in the day,
    as Canadian Entrepreneur Evan Chrapko
    and I were in car (with other speakers in four or five different cars) that
    raced to

    to meet another member of the royal family
    in Abu Dhabi (about an hour from Dubai). It turned out that his schedule wouldn’t
    allow it, but racing along at 180 kilometers (with our host pressing the driver
    not to drive faster and faster) was pretty fun.  Indeed, everyone kept telling us that the AER
    had the highest automobile fatality rate in the world – not a shock based on my
    limited experience.

    P.S. Here is the Powerpoint for my talk Download teaching_people_to_innovateii.pdf


  • Brainstorming in New BusinessWeek

    The Inside Innovation section of the new BusinessWeek has a pair of stories that are based on the research that Andew Hargadon and I did on brainstorming in the 1990s, and on what I’ve learned about how to use brainstorms since then, both from academic research and from working with teams that do creative work. The first story is called The Truth About Brainstorming and the second is Eight Rules to Brilliant Brainstorming.

    As an academic, headlines that claim to be about truth and brilliance make me a bit nervous, as I am trained to make more measured claims. But Ithink they did a great job of capturing my view of brainstorming research and practice.

  • No Brag, Just Facts at DaVita

    DaVita operates over 1200 kidney dialysis
    centers in the United States.
    They employ about 30,000 people that serve
    over 100,000 patients, and are committed to finding and acting on the best
    possible evidence to guide both treatment and management decisions. DaVita was on the verge of bankruptcy in
    1999, but under leadership of CEO Kent Thiry and COO Joe Mello, they have
    become a great financial success and, more importantly, the quality of care at DaVita treatment centers keeps getting better and better.

    Their
    mantra is "no brag, just facts.”

    My
    colleague Jeff Pfeffer has written a fascinating teaching
    case on DaVita
    and we discuss their commitment to evidence-based management
    in substantial detail in Hard Facts.
    We received an email from Joe Mello just the other day that demonstrates how
    they are taking an evidence-based approach to the Otis Redding problem.

    Here
    is what Joe wrote us:

    A few months ago I took over the
    oversight for our revenue operations (Billing and collections). In the new
    combined company we have about 900 FTEs in this area and we had just hired a
    great senior executive to run it. It is really complicated. It was (and still
    is) a mess.  Most of the time I think I’m pretty good at metrics, but with
    this behemoth of a department I was really struggling. I decided to re-read
    “The Knowing-Doing Gap”. It was great and really jazzed me up to tackle this
    challenge. But the one line that really jumped out at me was “…because the
    company that is not in control has far more measures because they’re not
    changing the basic management systems that are in place…” Bam! Right between the
    eyes…We went from 42 really important measures to 9 reeeaaallllyyy important
    ones. And progress has begun!

    I
    am really impressed with this little story for a number of reasons. First, Joe
    and his people are not only aware of the Otis
    Redding problem
    , they are taking steps to tackle it head on. This takes
    courage (as everyone has their favorite metric), it takes a business model that
    is simple enough and well-understood enough to be represented by a small number
    of metrics (or a commitment to developing one), and it is yet another
    indication of how open DaVita is with its people – and everyone else – about
    the steps that they use to practice evidence-based management.
    At DaVita, there is a strong commitment to always acting on the best evidence
    and to traveling on a continuing quest to find ever better evidence. If you read Joe’s statement, it drips with
    the attitude
    of wisdom
    : It reflects the confidence to act on the best knowledge
    available, and the humility to keep looking for and repairing imperfections.

  • Urban Asshole Notification Cards

    Kathy Lee, one of the doctoral students I work with at Stanford, uncovered a product sold by Glakware called Urban Asshole Notification Cards.  As the picture shows, these colorful cards say "Congrats! You're an Asshole" and each comes with a long checklist of different urban
    offenses, ranging from double-parking, to cutting in line, to leaving
    finished laundry in the washing machine or drier at the laundromat, to
    not shoveling your sidewalk. Product_main_m_urbanThe idea is that hand the card to
    offenders, slide it under their doors, or leave on their windshields.
    They cost $7.50 for a 10-pack. I am going to order mine right now,
    although  I am going to be careful who I give them to, as getting an
    asshole mad can be a very dangerous thing.

  • Dr. Gooser and Asshole Poisoning in Hospitals

    A
    longitudinal study of nearly 3000 medical students from 16 medical schools was
    just published the British Medical
    Journal.
    Dr. Erica Frank and her
    colleagues at the Emory Medical School
    found that 42 percent of seniors reported being harassed by fellow
    students, professors, physicians, or patients; 84 percent reported they
    had been belittled and 40 percent reported being both harassed and belittled. You can see a nice summary on Yahoo!
    or can download the study at the BMJ website.

    Dr.
    Frank’s study is unusually careful, but the finding that hospitals are nasty
    places to work – especially for nurses, medical students, and residents – has
    been replicated again and again.  An
    earlier study of  594 “junior physicians”
    (similar to “residents” in the U.S.) in the United Kingdom found that 37% had
    been bullied in the prior year (especially by more senior physicians) and 84%
    indicated they had witnessed bullying that was aimed at fellow junior
    physicians. Nurses appear to have it especially bad, and unlike these medical
    students or residents, they don’t graduate to positions as doctors where they
    are relatively free from getting abuse, and apparently, also relatively free to
    dish it out.

    I
    first saw the abuse that nurses face in the 1980s, when I was a PhD. student
    at The University of Michigan. My colleague Daniel Denison and I spent a week
    interviewing and observing a team of surgical nurses, and we were appalled by
    how rude, oppressive, and downright abusive the male doctors were to the
    (largely) female nurses. Take the
    surgeon that we dubbed “Dr Gooser,” after we saw him chasing a female nurse
    down the hall while trying to pinch her behind. The nurses we interviewed bitterly complained that it was useless to
    report him to administrators because they would be labeled as troublemakers and
    be told “he is just joking.” The told us
    that all they could do was to avoid him as much as possible.

    Indeed,
    study after study shows that too many hospitals let people like Dr. Gooser get
    away with their dirty work. A 1997 study of 130
    U.S. nurses in the Journal of Professional Nursing found that 90% reported being
    victims of verbal abuse by physicians during the past year; the average
    respondent reported 6 to 12 incidents of abusive anger, being ignored, and
    treated in a condescending fashion. Similarly,
    a 2003 study of 461 nurses published in the journal of Orthopaedic Nursing found that 91% had experienced verbal abuse in
    the past month, defined as mistreatment that left them feeling attacked,
    devalued, or humiliated. Physicians were the most frequent source of such nastiness,
    but it also came from patients and their families, fellow nurses, and
    supervisors.

    The author of this
    most recent study, Dr. Frank, was quoted as saying, "This kind of culture
    change is not going to happen with any particular rapidity." And that, "We
    give a lot of lip-service to teaching professionalism [and] to reducing the
    prevalence of disruptive physicians, but unless we train physicians not to do
    this, it still falls into the action-speaks-louder-than-words category." Her comments raise the question of how to
    start such a process of cultural change. I agree it wouldn’t be easy, but at the same time, this attitude is
    dangerous because of the power of the self-fulfilling prophecy. If you believe that cultural change is
    difficult and takes a long-time, then it will be difficult and take a long time.

    Hospitals operate
    under severe cost pressures, especially since the rise of HMOs. So the first thing
    that comes  is start with a serious
    effort to calculate the total cost of assholes in hospitals (or TCA), to
    calculate the amount of money lost on turnover, absenteeism, additional health
    care costs and so on. I provide some
    examples and a list of possible costs in The
    No Asshole Rule
    , but one cost that I left out for hospitals is the failure to learn
    from and report medical errors. There is a fascinating study by Harvard Business School’s
    Amy
    Edmondson
    of eight nursing units that sheds light on the human and financial costs. She
    found that when nurses worked in units with demeaning and critical co-workers
    and supervisors, they were less likely (as much as 10 times less likely) to
    report drug treatment errors.  Edmondson’s research suggests to me that, when
    asshole poisoning runs rampant in a nursing unit, the fear of being demeaned
    and belittled can increase the chances that patients will get sicker and die,
    because people are so afraid to admit and talk about mistakes.
     

    Of course, there
    are no magical cures for organizational problems, but they only way they get
    better is by taking one step at a time, and looking for intervention points
    that seem likely to get noticed. And
    confronting hospital and HMO administrators with the financial costs strikes me
    as a good place to start.

  • Sizzle vs. Substance

    I’ve been fretting about this lately, and ranting at Jeff Pfeffer and an anonymous business reporter about it. My question is whether there is a trade-off between producing writings and advice that managers will BUY versus what they need. Sometimes, it seems as if managers– to reverse the old Rolling Stones line — get the advice they want but not the advice they need (at least if they care about building more profitable and humane organizations).

    To argue with myself, I can point to the way that the market seems to respond to my little set of four management books. I can argue that as much as I love The No Asshole Rule, and believe that it has valuable – and evidence-based – content, that this book is much easier to create excitement about than the more serious and exacting work I’ve done, like Hard Facts ­— and that is not a good thing. I could take the argument further, and claim that there is so much crap out there partly because the market for business knowledge — the customers and the sellers — routinely rejects serious, deep, and important stuff. And the anonymous reporter from the famous business magazine did resonate to this sentiment, commenting on the how stories such as the "management secrets of Martha Stewart" seem to get snapped-up.  The One Minute Manager, Who Moved the Cheese, and the like fit this story, and — and although part of me protests and part of me wishes it to be so — perhaps the The No Asshole Rule will join this list of "light" best-sellers.

    On the other hand, a case can be made that the market actually does respond well to rigor when it is packaged in a readable and convincing package. Malcolm Gladwell is one of the champions here as is Steve Levitt with Freakonomics.  And Dan Gilbert’s intriguing Stumbling on Happiness is doing well (although he doesn’t actually give much advice, but the book is fascinating) . So the argument seems to be that if you write a book that is both based on serious ideas and evidence and is accessible, it will be snapped-up — or at least have the potential. And I could argue that I am trying to do that in The No Asshole Rule, perhaps despite that rowdy title.

    I still am not sure where I stand on this, although at the moment, my view is that, as authors, we have several key responsibilities when we write for managerial audiences, no matter how popular or unpopular our books might be (and that is impossible to predict that in advance anyway). First, to write stuff that is based on sound logic and evidence.  Second, to come clean when we base our advice on biased opinions, purely personal experiences, case studies, or deeply held beliefs.  Third, I believe we should give readers enough information about the limitations of our work so they can understand the drawbacks before they take actions that affect people and profits.

    I am starting to believe that this means that they very worst books are those that claim to be based on rigorous evidence, but that don’t come clean about their limitations.  This is why I have such a negative reaction to The War for Talent, as I wrote in earlier post, and why — although it is more forthcoming about the drawbacks — Good to Great bothers me because there are many limitations that ought to be acknowledged but are not.  For example the sample is very tiny (e.g.,firms with Level 5 leaders that weren’t great companies weren’t sampled — perhaps there were thousands and it is something that only rarely helps a tiny percentage of the time as it was seen in 11 out of 1400 or so cases), the evidence about the difference between good and great companies is heavily retrospective, and Collins mentions almost no prior research other than his earlier book Built to Last, even though there are literally hundreds – I suspect thousands – of articles published in peer reviewed journals that are more rigorous than either book and that have direct implications for his advice. I still love reading Good to Great, and it is written beautifully and much of the advice is supported by other research. But I do wish that the book had come more clean about its limits. I believe it would have been just as big a hit, and a better model for future management books.

    Unlike many of my posts, this one raises more questions than it answers. I love things that are true and honest, and meet the highest standards of rigor. I also love writing and talking about things that people get excited about and want to use.  There are times when I feel like I’ve done both, but I confess that there are also times when I am so tempted by the sizzle that I forget about the substance.

    I am not sure if this is true dilemma or just a challenge that a skilled business writer or consultant can overcome with the right training and experience. I’d appreciate your thoughts.