I’ve
been thinking about this cartoon a lot over the past week, as my colleague Huggy
Rao and I spent last week leading an executive program called Customer-Focused
Innovation. I will write a more
detailed blog post about the program in the next week or so. This is a joint venture between the Stanford
d.school and Graduate School of Business. I wrote a long post about what happened
last year, but the basic structure is that the mornings are devoted to case
discussions and lecture, where the executives use “clean” academic models to
talk about ways to tackle innovation problems; and the afternoons are done in
the “messy” d.school style, where they get out and observe an innovation
challenge (this year it was redesigning the gas pump experience), brainstorm some
solutions, develop some prototype solutions, and then get feedback from
executives in the industry about what they like and don’t like about the
solutions. The d.school experience was led by Perry
Klebhan (who took a week off from his job as CEO of Timbuk2) and Alex
Kazaks (who took a week of vacation from his job as a McKinsey consultant).
I
first saw this New Yorker cartoon in a book called The
Social Psychology of Organizing by Karl Weick, one my heroes who I’ve blogged
about here before. I was thinking of it all week for several reasons.
First,
in innovation, the people who precisely quantify – or try to quantify – the risks
of any new idea can often come up with excellent reasons why a particular idea
is likely to fail, and indeed, since most new ideas have a high failure rate,
they are usually right when their logic – whatever numbers they assign – is applied
to any particular new idea. BUT the rub is that if your organization never
tries anything new because there is always a strong case against any new idea. As
an example, look at this week’s Fortune, it shows that none of “green”
investments yet backed by Silicon Valley venture capital firm Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield, & Byers (where
Al Gore just accepted a job) has been financially successful yet. So the realists are winning a lot of innings
lately – but without the idealists, we all lose in the end.
Second,
one of the most powerful and persistent findings in the behavioral sciences is
the self-fulfilling prophecy: Simply
believing that something will happen, and convincing others that it will be so,
increases the odds that it will, indeed, come true. Realists often do a fantastic job of
convincing others why good ideas will fail; while idealists push on and inspire
others to join them against the odds. Now, I am not against realists. We need
real evidence and we need to know the risks of what we are doing, but the irony
is that the odds of failure may be objectively lower for idealists then
realists (and pessimists); so the prophecies of each group may be fulfilled. Moreover, when the odds are against you or
your idea, oddly enough, one of the few methods that have been shown to
increase the odds of success is convince yourself and others that – if everyone
just persists – the odds of success are high. This paradox has always intrigued me and I write about it a lot in Weird Ideas
That Work. And does have a very practical, and
evidence-based, implication: All other things being equal, you should bet on
optimists rather pessimists.
Third
and finally, it reminded me of the difference between the “clean” classroom
experience in the morning and the “messy” d.school experience in the
afternoon. The mornings were taught by
master teachers, accustomed to orchestrating lecture and classroom discussion
in way that scored runs consistently and predictably in just about every
session (after you have taught case 50 times or more, the odds are that you’ve
heard most of the questions before, and know how to handle the class). But the d.school experience meant that the
teaching team was leading new exercise and that the executives were out of
their comfort zones. Walking around gas stations, doing intense teamwork with
people they had never met before, building prototypes of gas stations (and throwing
away lots of ideas). So, to paraphrase what one executive said to us last year,
the runs in “clean” part pile up faster and more consistently with in mornings,
but at the end, the d.school experience wins out for many of them because they
actually do creative work and have it evaluated by people who might actually
use those ideas. Indeed, as a general
rule, talking about how to make creativity happen in an organization is a lot
less messy and confusing than actually doing creative work.
Of
course, both the “clean” and “messy” approaches have strengths. In particular,
it is easy to forget the big picture – the firm’s innovation strategy or core
cultural elements – when you are talking to a pissed-off customer or trying to
build a model of a gas station out of Lego, sliver tape, and foam. So Huggy and
I believe that leading innovation requires both.
P.S.
Note that I got (i.e., bought) permission from The New Yorker t o use this cartoon on my blog for six months.
Please don’t paste into your page without getting permission from them.